If you look into newspapers and websites of any journal from United States you won’t miss the word I-phone. Believe me, there are more than 100 articles that was written by technology experts, Apple lovers and others in this business.
Would it become a hit? Million dollar question. But it’s easy to answer. It’s going to be flop of this century. I knew that technology lovers and apple fans would hit at me. I love to get hit by the folks who’re fans of technology, convergence, and Ofcourse Apple.
History says that convergence won’t work in the market. Make no mistake, technologist love it, press love it but public think other way. Is it possible for anyone to think of having a system that could do printing, scanning, taking photocopies so on and so forth from single device? But intelligent people from different companies did that and eventually got failed.
When we think about printing, it’s only HP that’s coming to our mind. XEROX is better in photocopiers. This clearly states that divergence is here to stay and Ofcourse it’s only going to be winning bet. After so many millions and billions in advertising, still few companies love for another battle in convergence.
Apple with its I-phone is doing another mistake, which they did almost a decade before with Newton. For those ladies and gentlemen, who doesn’t know, Newton has been launched as hand held computer. It portrayed its handwritten recognition as key technology in its product. Today there is still palmtop, but there is no Newton. Newton got destroyed because of convergence. Its hand written recognition did lot of mistakes in recognizing and hell lot of funny stories has been written on it. Finally Apple winds up its plan and ended in wasting its precious time and money in the process creating successful convergence product.
I-Pod – Why it’s hit?
I-pod is definitely not a first hard drive for music. But its first hard drive in the mind of people. Why it become instant success. Because it does only one thing in a perfect way- Digital Music. It had the capability of holding more music than any other MP3 players that could store music of just 2 CDs. Its classical example of divergence. It got enormous success because it is a specialist.
I-Phone – Why it could be flop?
With I-phone I’d be able to watch movies, send email, listen to music and Ofcourse make calls. Which battery in this world could last longer by accepting all these functions combined in a single device? I think this is going to be huge task for the folks at apple to come up with realistic answer. Already BusinessWeek has come up with an article that I-Phone is not supporting few email clients. Make no mistakes there are much more to come.
There is another danger for Apple, where they might be getting into competition with focused competitors of Smart phone makers viz., Research in Motion (RIMM) and Palm. Apple is increasing its competitors which mean it is directly or indirectly creating enemies which are not good for its business. Well, you’d argue, if I’m in market, I’d be having enemies, but creating unnecessary enemies are not good for business.
Whatz the lesson for startups from Apple?
Ofcourse we always learn lessons from others or learn from our mistakes. From Apple launch of I-phone, start ups must know that they must be focused and must work as a specialist than a generalist.
If you’re in everything, it means you’re in nothing. Not only that, your business could unnecessarily attract more competition and it could add enemies in the industry. This is definitely not good for start ups.
Start ups must try to focus on a particular technology that should be new and unique rather than converging everything and does one-stop solution which had the history of failure than success in this market. Rational thinking should hold high than emotional thinking. This is one of the most important lessons from this launch.
Convergence stays in newspaper columns, Divergence stays in the market.
I-Pod – Greatest hit of 21st century. I-Phone – Greatest flop of 21st century.
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Ironically, the future of iPhone may be decided by AT&T rather than Apple.
http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/06/my-iphone-revie.html
I think the arguments against convergence are quite lame. Camera phones will number 1 billion worldwide since their launch 7 years ago. Mobile TV is the next big thing for Smartphones and companies in Europe are hedging big time on it. If convergence didn’t happen , PC chipsets would not have existed. Truth is , convergence drives costs down over the long run , provided it is done correctly.
Convergence isn’t just collection of features – it is a collection of features adapted to a particular type of device. Cell phones , by virtue of their ubiquity , are the best candidates for convergence.
Where do you place “luck” in the equation? Make no mistake. The name is Steve Jobs who has an embedded chip of luck. Each time Apple’s fortunes began to fade, he sprung a surprise on the market that took it back to glory.
Jobs has presided over four major game-changing product launches: the Apple II, the Macintosh, the iPod, and now, the iPhone; five if you count the release of Pixar’s Toy Story. The iPhone may not be one of the greatest turning points in human history, but it’s almost there. He’s like Willy Wonka and Harry Potter rolled into one.
Smart as he is, Jobs has hedged his risks very well by awarding AT&T (synonymous with slow speed connectivity) a two year monopoly – with a locked in sim card that masks as a security feature for iphone users in case of its loss. Imagine the upfront big bucks or revenue share or both coming Apple’s way… The unhedged bets, if any, will be covered by free publicity that hundreds of bloggers, bent on giving that turns it into revenues…
On its strategy part, I read somewhere that there is just one committee in the whole of Apple, to establish prices. I can’t think of a comparable company that does no/zero market research with its customers. Ironically, Jobs’s personal style could not be more at odds with the brand he has created. If the motto for Apple’s consumers is “think different,” the motto for Apple employees is “think like Steve.”
The gaffe you make is by viewing it thro a startup prism. Customers want a cool product and they give a damn where it comes from – a garage or an Appleplex. While you’re a startup, you’ve to please all. When your share quotes $120 at Nasdaq, the game looks very different. Get a grip!
I disagree with the prediction. Convergence of many products fail not because of ‘convergence’ itself but because of quality compromises made to accomodate various features. If a single device can deliver same features and quality that one would except from a group of devices and yet is affordable and easy to use, what would stop a consumer to buy it. I cannot think of anything.
So I think if they deliver in terms of quality and usability, the product will be a hit.
Cost is on higher side but will come down soon (most probably).
Apple has ammassed huge fan following in recent years because of iMacs and iPods.
Time is on their side. If they don’t screw up by delivering buggy apps, they would do well IMHO.
Here’s my little dig on the iPhone hype:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/82643436@N00/655815465
That indeed is a bold statement to make. While I’m not in a position to predict which way the iPhone would go (not having used it), there certainly are certain comments I have over your analysis:
1. History says that convergence won’t work in the market.
– Maybe not everywhere. But there are a lot of products that are doing well and can be termed as results of convergence. The Nokia N-Series of mobile phones is one such case that immediately comes to my mind. The question is whether the factors converging are complementary or not. There is nothing in the iPhone that many other mobile phones do not have. The most popular cell phones today have the ability to play music, capture pictures and video, access emails, surf the internet, etc.
One must bear in mind that even the iPod wasn’t the first mp3 player. What sold it was the terrific product design. It has a very simple and intuitive user interface and makes a fashion statement. That is where Apple’s core competence lies. It makes most products (software and hardware) that exhibit excellent and intuitive user interface and terrific user experience.
2. Which battery in this world could last longer by accepting all these functions combined in a single device?
– While today this may be true, I’m pretty confident that this won’t be a big concern pretty soon. Many companies are coming up with devices that could do with enhanced battery life and are spending big bucks on development of better technology.
Also, ‘last longer’ is a very relative term. While person X may need a battery that lasts 3 days, person Y might be perfectly comfortable with a battery that lasts a day.
3. Apple is increasing its competitors which mean it is directly or indirectly creating enemies which are not good for its business.
– I don’t get your point here ! Apple is entering a new field here which means that there is more competition for the existing players. Any new entrant in any field of business has to contend with the existing players. If Apple had gone by the same logic, there wouldn’t have been an iPod in the market today!
4. From Apple launch of I-phone, start ups must know that they must be focused and must work as a specialist than a generalist.
– Again the ‘iPod wouldn’t have been here’ argument !
5. Start ups must try to focus on a particular technology that should be new and unique.
– There is more to products than technology. There’s product design, user experience and many more factors. It would be a BIG mistake to think that by focusing on the technology alone, one can launch a successful product. The iPod is a classic example. There was no part of the technology that was unique or new.
6. Rational thinking should hold high than emotional thinking. This is one of the most important lessons from this launch.
– I don’t think a product design and launch of the magnitude of the iPhone could ever have been emotional. And it is to early to learn lessons from the launch of the iPhone. In fact, of reports are anything to go by, it seems to be selling like hot cakes. But again, it’s too early to say as most of the early buyers would be gadget lovers and geeks and it might take a little more time to get actual feedback from regular users of the iPhone !
Counterarguments most welcome!