Another day, another idea. This time, it is TrendWatching.
I define TrendWatching as a disciple where one observes (not sees), engages people in conversations (not interviews), identifies what is popular (not market research) and finally using these popular social objects to help businesses.
Why TrendWatching?
Market research as we know it is dead. I have huge reservations against the very premise of market research. If the respondents know that they are being researched, they more likely would come up with made up stories rather than answers. Then there is an entire issue about intelligence and commitment of the research agency. How do you know that interviews were actually conducted? How do you know that there are no errors in recording? And other millions questions like that.
TrendWatching can be the future of market research. Although it has been there since early 1990s and there are numerous companies making decent money predicting trends, yet it is still not taken seriously. Companies in India don’t even know about it. And hence the opportunity.
Predictions made by trendwatchers might or might not be accurate but they are far superior than a traditional market research. Trendhunters have been reported to be very accurate in predicting trends, fads and about-to-be-cult things in technology, pop culture, fashion, entertainment, media and youth.
How can one benefit from TrendWatching?
If you are a business and you know whats in vogue, you can use it for your brand to get new customers and keep existing ones excites. It also helps make your brand more relevant, pertinent and contemporary.
Its like looking in the glass ball and getting a perspective on things that would be cult in years to come and your business and brand can use these inputs to succeed. If I can draw an analogy, in all facets of life we have people who predict the future based on some logical assumptions. Institutions like meteorological departments, astrologers, stock traders, policy makers, governments, economists etc. so it all the time. Why not do it with business? And if you are accurate even at 1% of times, there are immense gains to be made.
If you are an individual, you can figure out what is in vogue and you would not be known as a drab person. It will elevate your social status in your peer group.
How to go about TrendWatching?
It involves using Malcolm Gladwell‘s now famous work titled The Tipping Point. It assumes that there are certain people who are very much involved into one activity and are experts by the virtue of their indulgence. If we bring few such experts and let them talk to each other, we can have interesting observations. There is no real innovation happening with these methodologies. Most of these are simply making incremental changes to what people in other evolved economies are doing.
The biggest stumbling block and (as Michael Porter would put it) the entry barrier to this business is access to these people. You need to be able to identify these people, get them to work for you and get into a conversation. And moment we talk about people being a key criteria, we are talking about emotions and uncertainty.
End Notes
I see immense business potential with TrendWatching in times to come. Especially in India. This is one of those businesses where capital required is minimal and business can generate awesome cash flows.
I invite readers to share their perspectives on this. Please be critical. And as always, post reproduced from personal blog.
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Saurabh,
Within the context of Social objects, trend watching is a synonym of Social Media Monitoring & Analytics (google it). There is a lot of activity in productizing some of these ideas. A few of the companies include Radian6, Cymfony, Scoutlabs, Buzzmetrics. I also know of a few KPO companies in India who are doing custom “trendwatching” for Burger King, P&G, TMH and others.
If you are planning to do something in this space don’t get baffled by the pretty charts of the companies I have mentioned above — they are just sifting the tip of the data volume and marketers have just started seeing the value of this data point. There are several niche areas, which, if executed well can turn into good businesses.
We’re at a full cycle of consumer buying behavior where ‘Markets are Conversations’ again.
@1ndus
Gladwell called those social alphas “influencers”.
But there is also a theory that counters Gladwell’s argument and the perceived hurdle in locating influencers. If society is ready to embrace a trend, almost anyone can start one–and if it isn’t, then almost no one can. I quote –
Trends are more like forest fires: There are thousands a year, but only a few become roaring monsters. That’s because in those rare situations, the landscape was ripe: sparse rain, dry woods, badly equipped fire departments. If these conditions exist, any old match will do.
To succeed with a new product, it’s less a matter of finding the perfect hipster to infect and more a matter of gauging the public’s mood. Sure, there’ll always be a first mover in a trend. But since she generally stumbles into that role by chance, she is an “accidental Influential.â€
The bottomline is you don’t need go hunting for social alphas to start a trend; any average slob would do – when conditions are right.
Do also have a look at http://trendwatching.com/tips/ which provides 5 tips on how to hone your trend watching skills. Trendwatching.com claims to have 8,000 “trendwatchers” who scan the globe for emerging trends.
Then we have the worlds largest idea spotting network http://www.springspotters.com/springspotters/ which gives ipods and other gifts to people who send in observations –not of consumer behaviour but of business to consumer offerrings that they may see somewhere which has the scope of being replicable elsewhere. A good example of an idea which someone noticed and highlighted to springspotters is of a company called jetsuite http://www.jetsuite.com/.
While I would not go as far as saying that Market research in its traditional form ( quanti and quali research) is dead, I would certainly agree with Saurabh of the need for marketeers to have a keen sense of observation. No amount of market research for eg can substitute for a practise that i would follow when I was handling organised retail in my last company — of spending a few hours occassionally merely observing consumer behaviour in a supermarket.
http://www.trendwatching.com/trendreport/toc/
These reports are also good.
It is one of those things.
Challenges include
1) How will you quantify the benefits? The perceived value is subjective.
2) It straddles a few different areas/expertise. The McKinseys of the world have better bandwidth for that kind of stuff.
Online, crowdsourcing trendwatching is easier (e.g. springwise.com). The value-add is in interpreting the results.